ACADEMY OF DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT – INSTITUTE OF SKY POLITICS Security guarantees for Ukraine from Germany and France – the main challenge to the election of the President of the Russian Federation The Munich-24 Security Conference (16-18.02.24) firmly stated that the collective West will not abandon Ukraine in its war with Russia. China, meanwhile, unequivocally confirmed that it does not recognize the entry of the Republic of Crimea into the Russian Federation. Thus, the support for Ukraine from the world's leading countries has in fact shown Russia's strategic solitude on the fronts of a Third World War of a new hybrid type. And the course and outcome of the Russian Special Military Operation (to defend the Donbas) has become the main factor determining the prospect of "Putin's Long State." Practice shows that victory in war leads to the strengthening of a regime. Whereas defeat in war always leads to a change of regime. Thus, the USSR's victory in the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945 strengthened the Soviet power of Lenin – Stalin. And the USSR's defeat in the Cold War of 1946-1989 led to the collapse of the USSR, the downfall of Soviet power, and the establishment of a liberal regime in Russia. It should be emphasized that in a war of a new hybrid type, non-combat stratagems (the path of cunning) are more effective than actual combat operations. Let us show how this works. In 2018, the collective West, beginning with the Skripal poisoning case in Great Britain, turned against V. Putin's "sovereign democracy": it tightened economic sanctions, carried out a mass expulsion of Russian diplomats, humiliated the state symbols of the Russian Federation in sports, orchestrated obstruction in the scientific community, launched anti-Russian propaganda, and so on. Now, in 2024, the talk is of discrediting V. Putin's election to a fifth term as President of the Russian Federation. Distinguishing the intelligence indicators that have manifested since the beginning of 2024 allows one to believe that with regard to the election of the President of the Russian Federation this time (the vote is scheduled for 15-17.03.24), those behind the scenes are applying a cunning stratagem of drawing the Kremlin into an ambush from which the current Russian authorities have no worthy way out. The stratagem is designed for young people and the progressive part of society who get information about the situation not from the media but from internet social networks. The meaning of the ambush is to breed resentment toward the authorities and set people up for alienation from the regime. The first two stages of the stratagem have already been worked through. The third stage should be expected later, tied to the voting procedure. Among Russians: God loves a Trinity. At the first stage, people's sympathies were attracted by the charismatic politician B. Nadezhdin, who openly advocated an immediate ceasefire and a transition to negotiations for peace in Ukraine. By law, to be included on the ballot lists, Nadezhdin had to submit to the CEC 100,000 signatures of voters who supported his nomination as a presidential candidate. Nadezhdin's program inspired those who cared. Long queues of signatories formed in cities of the Russian Federation and abroad, shown in video clips. The candidate's broad support made it possible to quickly collect more than 200,000 signatures. In two weeks his rating rose from 1% to 10% of voters and continued to grow.

In this situation, the authorities faced a cunning choice: to allow Nadezhdin to run – a serious threat to shake V. Putin's unopposed position. To refuse – to incur the irritation, rejection, and resentment toward the authorities of a significant part of society. As they say: both are worse. The CEC refused Nadezhdin. The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation rejected Nadezhdin's complaint against the CEC on 15.02.24. The second stage of the stratagem began on 16.02.24 with the report of the sudden death in a place of confinement beyond the Arctic Circle of the leader of the opposition to Putin's Long State, A. Navalny. Spontaneous memorial actions arose in cities of the Russian Federation and abroad, with the laying of flowers and accusations against the authorities and Putin personally. Video clips spread through internet channels with repulsive scenes of harsh detentions, mainly of young women. The purpose of the forceful suppression of the sincere impulses of the souls of Navalny's supporters is to embitter the liberal part of society and stir up emigration. Navalny's death not only followed immediately upon the exhaustion of news hooks in the Nadezhdin case, but also miraculously coincided with the opening of the Munich Security Conference, where the spouse of the deceased leader of the Russian political opposition delivered an angry accusatory speech. The leaders of the collective West responded in unison to the report of Navalny's sudden death with a promise that they would not leave the opposition figure's death "unanswered" by "Putin's bloody regime." It is unlikely that the answer will be only another round of sanctions. Most likely the answer will be non-recognition of Putin as an elected president (refusal of legitimacy) and powerful support for Ukraine. For the Kremlin, the problem of ways out of the situation, again by the formula "both are worse," will be Navalny's funeral. To give the body to the family and allow a funeral in Moscow on the eve of the elections means creating an occasion for an open demonstration of protest by those who will follow the coffin. Not to give up the body and secretly bury it beyond the Arctic Circle means raising in the mass of the population of liberal views a hidden wave of indignation and embitterment that will in one way or another strike at the election procedure and Putin's authority. The authorities would remove all suspicions from themselves and would be congenial if, without giving the body to the family, they arranged a state funeral in Moscow for the state criminal Navalny. As people say among us: and the wolves are fed and the sheep are safe. However, smoothing over complaints against the authorities in the Russian Federation is not part of the design of the stratagem to change the ruling regime, and therefore will not happen. Ahead lies the third stage of the Planner's stratagem, with increased pressure from those behind the scenes on the ruling stratum of Russians of the "European choice," with the threat of the grim prospect of Russia turning into a pariah country in the West, with the "yellow peril" of finally pushing the pro-Western elite into the "embrace of friendship" with China in the East. In this emotional atmosphere, in the corridors of power of Putin's Long State, one can expect a growing acute feeling of abandonment, expressed in the words of Emperor Nicholas II before his abdication: "All around is treason, cowardice, and deceit." In December 2016, Putin, while on a trip to the Urals, in Chelyabinsk, answering a question from one of the workers about whether he had a dream, replied that he "would like to successfully complete his political career, and afterward travel." There is no doubt that the voting in the election of the President of the Russian Federation in March 2024 will end in Putin's complete success. After which it will be possible to bring into action a successor according to the constitutional scheme of transferring power to an appointed prime minister, as under Yeltsin: "I am leaving. Take care of Russia." Russia's time has come! For a detailed commentary, see the video https://youtu.be/l1ts4NRXvOU Performed by Andrey Devyatov No939 of 21.02.24